Housing ambition
31k
New units over planning horizon.
Public capital range
$2.0–$4.0B
Backlog + growth infrastructure.
Annualized need
$100M
Midpoint / years, not magic.
Private capital
$15.5B
Vertical development funded by builders.
Interactive assumptions
31,000
30 yrs
$1.0B
$1.0B
$1.0B
$500k
The calculation
Existing backlog
+ Growth schools
+ Growth infrastructure
= Total public capital need
Total public capital ÷ years = illustrative annual capacity target
+ Growth schools
+ Growth infrastructure
= Total public capital need
Total public capital ÷ years = illustrative annual capacity target
Current modeled result
Important: the annual number is a budgeting stress-test. Dom’s actual thesis is to maximize tax-base growth so each annual capital budget can rise while debt service stays under the affordability threshold.
Debt-service guardrail model
This shows Dom’s denominator argument: if recurring revenue grows, the county can carry more annual debt service while staying under a 10% policy ceiling.
$2.35B
8.0%
4.0%
What this means
Dom is not saying: “Find exactly $130M every year.”
Dom is saying: “Grow recurring revenue so the annual capital budget and debt capacity can expand without breaking the 10% debt-service guardrail or cutting schools.”
Dom is saying: “Grow recurring revenue so the annual capital budget and debt capacity can expand without breaking the 10% debt-service guardrail or cutting schools.”
Phil’s constraint still matters
You still need seed capital, upfront infrastructure, and incentives to make private capital show up. Growth does not pay for itself instantly. The funding stack has to bridge timing.
Capital stack: who pays for what?
| Layer | Paid by | Purpose | Policy discipline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vertical development | Private developers / builders | Housing, mixed-use, commercial buildings | County should reduce entitlement risk, not replace private capital. |
| Enabling infrastructure | County + developers + state/federal grants | Roads, water/sewer, stormwater, sidewalks, transit access | Prioritize corridors where assessed value and housing supply rise. |
| School capacity / deferred maintenance | County capital budget, GO bonds, state aid, excise/surcharge | Protect school quality while growth occurs | One-time development money funds capital only, not recurring payroll. |
| Value capture | TIF / special districts / incremental tax base | Use future uplift to fund upfront public improvements | Do not subsidize projects that would happen anyway. |
| Operating services | Recurring revenue growth | Public safety, schools ops, maintenance, services | Cap recurring spend growth; avoid turning volatile growth into permanent bloat. |